If you were hoping for a return to “normal” in Week 13, I’m afraid you were disappointed. Instead, we got 25-point performances from Zach Wilson and Jared Goff while Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott all failed to reach 20 Fantasy points. And all three of those big names finished behind Gardner Minshew, who once again looked like a quality NFL starting quarterback.
Of course, quarterback wasn’t the only place with massive disappointments. The only question is when we’re going to expect anything different from Ja’Marr Chase. But before we get to the running backs and wide receivers, we need to tackle the quarterback problem.
Lamar Jackson should be benched Week 14 against the Browns
The Case: Jackson failed to reach 20 Fantasy points for the third consecutive game and in Week 14 he’ll face the same Browns defense that held him to 11.4 Fantasy points in Week 12. He now has almost as many turnovers (16) as touchdowns (18) on the season and he hasn’t averaged even seven yards per pass attempt since Week 7 against the Bengals.
Jackson’s recent performances put him in the same range as guys like Cam Newton and Taysom Hill and those quarterbacks have much better matchups in Week 14. If you can acquire either, you should sit Jackson for them.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it
This is almost entirely a touchdown problem and I just don’t buy that touchdown problems are sticky. Amazingly, Jackson has just one touchdown in eight of his 11 games this season. His passing touchdown rate is 4.2%, compared to a 6.3% career rate. His rushing TD rate is just 1.5% this season. Entering 2021 he’d scored on 3.9% of his rushes.
So with a career-worst touchdown rate through the air and on the ground he’s still QB7 on the season, sandwiched in between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Philosophically, that’s not a guy I’m even thinking about sitting. If I go down with the touchdown rate, I will, but I believe there’s a better chance Jackson regresses to be a top-5 QB rest of season than continues this current trend.
Antonio Gibson is a top-12 RB rest of season
The Case: It’s good to remember that there were also positive performances from Week 13. Gibson has 28 touches for 111 yards and a score against the Raiders. Gibson is now RB4 since Week 10 when the Washington Football Team returned from their bye. In that stretch, he’s averaging 27.3 touches and 18.8 PPR Fantasy points per game.
Gibson is finally the top-12 back he was drafted to be in August.
The Verdict: Believe it
The only concern is that this four-game stretch has also been a four-game win streak for the Football Team, so we haven’t seen how Gibson will be used in a loss. And they do play the Cowboys twice in the next three weeks. But I believe that Washington’s defense has turned the corner enough to keep them in most games and that stylistically, Gibson is going to remain very involved even when they’re trailing by a small margin. He’s a must-start running back against everyone left on the schedule.
Gardner Minshew should start for the Eagles
The Case: Minshew just averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt and threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions) in his first start of the season. Jalen Hurts hasn’t thrown for 240 yards in a game since Week 4 and only has two games all season with 240 yards, multiple touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Unless the Eagles want to run a one-dimensional offense, Minshew should be the guy.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it
As good as Minshew looked, and as much as I enjoy Minshew Mania, it was the Jets. The difference between Minshew and Hurts statistically as passers is negligible and Hurts add a rushing ability that is as good as anyone in the league. It would probably be better for Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith if Minshew was the starter, but Hurts is a better Fantasy option and a better option for the Eagles’ playoff hopes.
Jamaal Williams is a flex at best if D’Andre Swift misses Week 14
The Case: Williams scored just nine PPR Fantasy points in a positive game script against a mediocre run defense. He only ran nine pass routes and lost hurry-up snaps to Godwin Igwebuike. It’s unlikely he’ll have a script as good as this one in Week 14 against the Broncos, and without passing work he’s really not that appealing.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it
He had 18 touches and 80 total yards. The passing downs work was legitimately disappointing and will mean that Williams falls from borderline RB1 to low-end RB2, but that type of workload will keep him inside the top 20. The Broncos have been gashed by running backs at times this season and Williams should be the short yardage guy if the Lions get inside the 5-yard line. Start him again if Swift is out, just not with as much confidence.
Ja’Marr Chase is no longer a must-start WR
The Case: Chase just had his fifth straight game with fewer than 60 yards. He’s being out-targeted and out-produced by Tee Higgins and this offense has not shown itself capable of producing two must-start wide receivers at the same time. Worse yet, it appears the drops are back as Chase turned what could have been a long touchdown into a costly interception in Week 13. That won’t help get him more targets.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it
In this terrible stretch, Chase has one game below 10 PPR Fantasy points. He’s still remarkably talented and his early season success should have taught us that drops don’t matter. Higgins’ emergence is only going to make things easier on Chase moving forward. Even against a good 49ers defense, you should start both Chase and Higgins as No. 2 wide receivers.
